Tasmanians Head to the Polls: Can This Election Fix the Political Chaos?
By Adam Morton | 18 July 2025
On Saturday, Tasmanians face a decision that goes far beyond party lines or campaign slogans. This is not just another state election — it's the fourth in seven years, and it's happening just 16 months after the last one. That alone tells you a lot about the current state of Tasmanian politics.
🗳️ Why Are We Even Here?
To put it simply, the political system in Tasmania is broken — or at least badly rattling. The catalyst for this snap election was a no-confidence motion passed against Premier Jeremy Rockliff over a spiralling budget crisis and a string of missteps, including the botched handling of the new Spirit of Tasmania ferries.
Add to that a divisive $1 billion plan to build an AFL stadium on Hobart’s waterfront — which many locals oppose — and you’ve got a recipe for gridlock. With no party able to form a stable government and no leader able to rally bipartisan support, the governor stepped in and called an early election. It’s one few wanted, but everyone now has to deal with.
🧊 A Cold Campaign in More Ways Than One
The campaign trail has been as frosty as the winter air — low energy, few new ideas, and no bold vision.
Premier Rockliff tried to revive his fortunes with a promise to launch TasInsure, a government-backed insurance scheme meant to lower costs for households and small businesses. But critics say it's light on details and potentially a financial black hole.
Labor’s Dean Winter zeroed in on health, promising to open 10 new "TassieDoc" GP clinics — and even pledged to resign if he fails to deliver within two years. Ambitious? Yes. Realistic? That’s up for debate, especially when there’s a shortage of GPs across the country.
🤯 No Clear Winner in Sight
Polls show a near-deadlock:
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Liberals: ~31–34%
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Labor: ~30–31%
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Greens: ~16%
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Independents: ~20%
If these numbers hold, no party will win a majority. Again.
The Greens and independents could win nearly 40% of the vote combined, a historic shift. The message is loud and clear: Tasmanians are looking for something — anything — different from the status quo.
🏟️ The Stadium Nobody Wants?
One of the strangest aspects of this election is that both major parties support building a billion-dollar stadium at Macquarie Point — a project the public largely doesn’t want. Why? Because the AFL says it’s a requirement for Tasmania to finally get its own national league team, the Tasmania Devils, in 2028.
It’s a classic catch-22: People want the team, but not the stadium. And there’s no version of the deal that lets you have one without the other.
The Greens and several prominent independents have fiercely opposed the stadium — making it a defining issue of this campaign.
🌿 Beyond the Big Two
Some of the most interesting candidates aren’t part of the major parties at all. Independent names like Kristie Johnston, Peter George, and David O’Byrne are in strong contention. Many voters feel these candidates better reflect their concerns — from environmental protection to government accountability.
Peter George, in particular — a former journalist and outspoken critic of the salmon industry — has gained momentum with support from Climate 200. If elected, he would join a growing crossbench of independents who may well hold the keys to government.
⌛ Don’t Expect a Result on Election Night
Even after the votes are cast, the uncertainty won’t end. A record number of pre-poll and postal votes means the final result could take days or even weeks to be confirmed. In some electorates, deciding who wins the final seats will come down to narrow preference flows.
And then there's the real challenge — forming a government.
Neither Rockliff nor Winter wants to work with the Greens. Rockliff won’t even entertain the idea, calling them and some independents “destructive left-wing radicals.” Winter has ruled out any deals with the Greens too, citing policy clashes on forestry, salmon farming, and energy.
That leaves the “sensible independents,” as Winter calls them, to decide who gets to govern. But even among those, opinions are split and loyalties are murky.
⚠️ No Time for Triumph
Regardless of who ends up in the premier's seat, this election is not a cause for celebration. Polls show that neither major leader is popular, and most Tasmanians are simply tired of the chaos.
According to YouGov, more voters would reluctantly choose Winter over Rockliff if forced to pick. But that’s hardly a ringing endorsement.
As pollster Paul Smith put it:
“There’s a mood for change, but Labor hasn’t caught that wind.”
💡 What Happens Next?
That’s the million-dollar question.
What’s clear is this: Tasmania’s political landscape is shifting. The old model — two-party dominance with clear winners — is breaking down. Voters are demanding more transparency, stronger environmental protections, better healthcare, and most of all, a functioning parliament.
Whether this election delivers that — or sends the state deeper into dysfunction — depends not just on who wins the most votes, but who is willing to work together when it’s all over.
No one’s expecting a miracle. But perhaps, this time, Tasmanians can begin to rebuild what’s been broken for far too long.
📌 Stay tuned for post-election analysis once results begin to take shape. And no matter the outcome, one thing is certain: Tasmania deserves better — and voters are demanding it.